Saturday, January 30, 2010

Re: Learning how to trade is a Paradox

Hi Eric,
 
You're absolutely right.
Ray Barros said basically the same time - that make mistake is part of learning.
 
The key is risk management.  Make sure you take only small risk while you're still learning.
 
Regards,
Peter.


 
On Fri, Jan 29, 2010 at 2:41 PM, Eric Lye <forexlye@gmail.com> wrote:
Learning how to trade is a paradox.  When we trade, we tell ourselves don't make mistakes.  However, we can only learn well if we make those mistakes.  And most people need to repeat making the same mistakes in order to learn (cognitive training).  Thus, allow yourself time to learn, allow yourself to make mistakes (at a small cost).

Friday, January 29, 2010

Learning how to trade is a Paradox

Learning how to trade is a paradox.  When we trade, we tell ourselves don't make mistakes.  However, we can only learn well if we make those mistakes.  And most people need to repeat making the same mistakes in order to learn (cognitive training).  Thus, allow yourself time to learn, allow yourself to make mistakes (at a small cost).

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Know that Market Experts Aren't Magicians

I read this and fully agree with it.

Some of the experts that try to predict the markets actually make money trading
the markets; however, they don't make money because they have predicted the
market correctly, they make money because they have traded the market correctly.

USDJPY 2010-01-28 Live Analysis

I have been a little bit busy and could not catch up with my blogging.  Will try to keep up.  Below is my view of USDJPY


Monday, January 25, 2010

Think in terms of probabilities and not certainties

Trading is about having the ability to think in terms about probabilities and not certainties.  A typical scenario is when you entered into a short with a double top, it doesn't mean the formation is going to be a definite signal that the price is going down.  So, when the setup show signs of failure, it's time to get out and not holding to the original view.

Thus, the key to trading success is management.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

2010-01-20 EURUSD Live Trade

Wednesday 20th Jan:

Following this pair since yesterday, did a trade yesterday and another this morning.

(refer to analysis Monday's Analysis)


Monday, January 18, 2010

Not trading is also part of trading

I made some complaints about the slow market to a master Jedi Trader, he told me, no trading is also part of trading.

~ Eric

EURUSD 2010-01-18 Analysis

Monday 18th Jan: 

It has been a week that I have not been posting.  Need to adjust the routine a little...

Anyway, looks like a tough week to start.  Price in the limbo,  not easy to figure out the direction. I would take que from the market.


Monday, January 11, 2010

Risk Reward Ratio (RRR)

Risk reward ratio is a common topic of the traders especially for all new traders. It is correct that when we trade we should be looking at a RRR of 1:2 or more. So that, when we make 5 losses out of 10, we are still in the black. However, this is largely abused by people trying to market their FX courses, where they try to paint the picture that trading is simple - "you don't have to win all the time", "our success rate is 70%", etc. These are bs when they don't teach their students the right stuffs.

My experience tells me RRR should not be the focal point, especially for full time traders.

For last week, I did an exercise with my group of traders. I asked them to take note of the frequency of their trading opportunities. My objective is to tell them that frequency of trading opportunities is a more important aspect to be addressed as well as the success rate. And I had 9 trades, out of which 1 fail, 6 wins, 2 breakevens (less than 10pips profit)

With these, then you can then devise your consistent approach towards trading (assuming you are trading based on your knowledge and skills).

Consistent profit is not based on "reliability" of the system or strategy, it is a result of the consistent approach of your trading.

~ Eric Lye
(wrote this while I am at the cafe of Ibis hotel waiting for a client)

Thursday, January 7, 2010

AUDUSD 2010-01-07 Live Aanlysis


Friday:
The opportunity came on Friday afternoon (SGT).  Having to wait for a day for a setup you have identified is possible and common.  That's why patience is an important virtue.



Thursday:
We may have some upside for this pair.

Monday, January 4, 2010

2010-01-04 EURUSD Live Trade

[Update] 
Trade closed with net result of + 112.5pips with scaling out at 90pips, 140pips, 120pips (manually close)

[Monday]
Took the opportunity to review the market when the AUDUSD did not work out.  Looks like market is still kind to me.


2010-01-04 AUDUSD Live Trade

New year, new start.  Let's hope market is kind to me.  :-)

[12:00pm SGT]  Not nice... :-( close with +5pips.  Wait for nicer setups.