Result: Closed 1/3 with 70pips, but remaining stop out during the US session. Net 23pips.
Monday, November 30, 2009
2009-11-30 EURUSD Live Trade
I would take this morning's drawing in my analysis and superimposed on my chart when I did my entry. On the chart, the right shoulder turn out to be higher. Thus, knowing how to validate a setup is a skill that a trader needs to acquire.
Result: Closed 1/3 with 70pips, but remaining stop out during the US session. Net 23pips.
Result: Closed 1/3 with 70pips, but remaining stop out during the US session. Net 23pips.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Keep Trading Simple
I always hear this - Keep Trading Simple. I have been wondering how true is this. Trading is never simple. It involves risks, money sense, and decision making process to put on a trade. It is the same as a business, it is tough, especially the management part.
I have been telling people and traders that trading is never simple. Then one day, I actually used this phrase when explaining certain concepts to a trader. I was liked, "what happened?".
Then, I realized is because I have build a structure on my thought process and created a methodology to learn. With these process steps, it flows with the thoughts and thus we can keep things "simple" by following the process and not jumping from one thought to another.
I have seen other people's structure that are so complicated that are stuffed with rules, observations, and excuses and yet they try to pass this on to their students and ask them to keep trading simple. In short, I encourage traders to learn more and focus on understanding your thought process and build a structure around it. This, in my opinion, would help you to strive well in the journey of a trader.
I have been telling people and traders that trading is never simple. Then one day, I actually used this phrase when explaining certain concepts to a trader. I was liked, "what happened?".
Then, I realized is because I have build a structure on my thought process and created a methodology to learn. With these process steps, it flows with the thoughts and thus we can keep things "simple" by following the process and not jumping from one thought to another.
I have seen other people's structure that are so complicated that are stuffed with rules, observations, and excuses and yet they try to pass this on to their students and ask them to keep trading simple. In short, I encourage traders to learn more and focus on understanding your thought process and build a structure around it. This, in my opinion, would help you to strive well in the journey of a trader.
Melvin's Big Catch
I didn't had the time to catch this, but at least one of us did. This was predicted two days back, and we have been waiting for it. This is the power of understanding price action that is predictive compared to indicators trading which is totally reactive.
This is a 300pips catch! Congrats bro!
This is a 300pips catch! Congrats bro!
Thursday, November 26, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-26 Live Analysis
Thursday: 26th Nov
After consolidating most of the month, it finally broke out.
I always tell my students, when playing the levels, most of the time you would get what you want, but there would be one that would break above or below the level.
After consolidating most of the month, it finally broke out.
I always tell my students, when playing the levels, most of the time you would get what you want, but there would be one that would break above or below the level.
2 Failed Trades
Last 2 days, I had two failed trades. Tue, I put in a 1/3 lot to test if a setup would happen, and it failed. Wed, I try shorting AUDUSD based on a possible H&S, and the right shoulder failed. Lost -10pips and -30pips on each. Now I am on a net loss of -22pips on my new 300pips cycle. :-(
These two trades gave me a signal that I may be seeing "outdated" stuffs on my charts. Got to clean up and re-start again. That's something that always puzzled me, why would other people's charts not updated for years! As price developed, the relevancy of the support and resistance would changed.
These two trades gave me a signal that I may be seeing "outdated" stuffs on my charts. Got to clean up and re-start again. That's something that always puzzled me, why would other people's charts not updated for years! As price developed, the relevancy of the support and resistance would changed.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-25 Live Analysis
It was a typical "short" day yesterday, price went down to halfway and backup to the same level. The road map still shows a bearish direction, but we need a setup to happen.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
2009-11-23 EURUSD Live Trade
This trade do not have any confirmation yet. Lower probability but small risk, good rewards. Will still have to manage the trade til the confirmation comes
Result: Doh!
Did not manage the trade well. Price did the intermediate stop that I predicted and I did not scale out, thus eventually got out with only 18pips profit.
Result: Doh!
Did not manage the trade well. Price did the intermediate stop that I predicted and I did not scale out, thus eventually got out with only 18pips profit.
Monday, November 23, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-23 Live Analysis (Update)
Monday: 23rd Nov, 2:59pm (SGT)
The price followed the orange set of lines analyzed over the weekend. Looks like we may have a setup at this level. What is the learning point here? Wait for price to develop into the pattern that you are familiar with. And usually, familiar patterns are your high probability setups.
4:39pm (SGT) Update
Sell setup didn't formed and looks like we have to go back to the drawing board.
The price followed the orange set of lines analyzed over the weekend. Looks like we may have a setup at this level. What is the learning point here? Wait for price to develop into the pattern that you are familiar with. And usually, familiar patterns are your high probability setups.
4:39pm (SGT) Update
Sell setup didn't formed and looks like we have to go back to the drawing board.
EURGBP 2009-11-23 Live Analysis (Update)
Monday: 23rd Nov 2:45pm (SGT)
The original point D analyzed over the weekend has shifted higher. This is one of the things we need to take note when trading harmonics, you would need to understand how to find your confirmation of the point and the setup. In any case, without these 2, you would not put in a position.
The original point D analyzed over the weekend has shifted higher. This is one of the things we need to take note when trading harmonics, you would need to understand how to find your confirmation of the point and the setup. In any case, without these 2, you would not put in a position.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-23 Live Analysis
Monday: 23rd Nov
This is going to be a tough one on Monday, but we don't have to worry, let the candles form and look for your setup. There would be many entry opportunities. I remembered the first time I learn trading Forex, there was a rule to enter near moving average lines. omg... that's quite nonsense.
When you look back on charts, you would realize at many points the moving average line is near the candles, and that usually present opportunities. However, during live, the price just seem so far away and you would miss the entry as your focus in on the moving average line.
Trade what you see is still your best friend.
This is going to be a tough one on Monday, but we don't have to worry, let the candles form and look for your setup. There would be many entry opportunities. I remembered the first time I learn trading Forex, there was a rule to enter near moving average lines. omg... that's quite nonsense.
When you look back on charts, you would realize at many points the moving average line is near the candles, and that usually present opportunities. However, during live, the price just seem so far away and you would miss the entry as your focus in on the moving average line.
Trade what you see is still your best friend.
EURGBP 2009-11-23 Live Analysis
Monday: 23rd Nov
EURGBP has done a good and deep correction. The road map is on a sell bias and potentially could be a decent reward. Monday should present some good opportunities.
EURGBP has done a good and deep correction. The road map is on a sell bias and potentially could be a decent reward. Monday should present some good opportunities.
Technical Traders
I would like to share my understanding of Technical Trading.
In my opinion, technical trading requires the trader to understand market conditions and its psychology through his/her charts. And the ability to analyze or in general we call Technical Analysis (TA) is done by learning the fundamentals of what is support and resistance, chart patterns, candle sticks formations, trend line and channels, Fibonacci and their applications. More advance stuffs like harmonic patterns and Elliot waves are useful and powerful concepts to understand Price Action (PA). Of course not forgetting indicators that are trying to describe the price movements.
Using my own yardsticks, if I were to categorize the types of technical traders, I would have the following categories
Signals - Traders that are overly focus in looking for entry signals (majority)
Levels - For those that have understood what is support and resistance, they would know how to trade the levels
Waves - For those who have more indepth understanding of the market, able to recognize wave movement and therefore possess the ability to follow development of the prices more closely
Below is a measurement of the components of skills with reference with the category of traders. Of course, these are just my opinions. Not meant to be used for any form of conclusive statements. Each box is just a short description of how each type of traders would possibly use the components of skills.
In my opinion, technical trading requires the trader to understand market conditions and its psychology through his/her charts. And the ability to analyze or in general we call Technical Analysis (TA) is done by learning the fundamentals of what is support and resistance, chart patterns, candle sticks formations, trend line and channels, Fibonacci and their applications. More advance stuffs like harmonic patterns and Elliot waves are useful and powerful concepts to understand Price Action (PA). Of course not forgetting indicators that are trying to describe the price movements.
Using my own yardsticks, if I were to categorize the types of technical traders, I would have the following categories
Signals - Traders that are overly focus in looking for entry signals (majority)
Levels - For those that have understood what is support and resistance, they would know how to trade the levels
Waves - For those who have more indepth understanding of the market, able to recognize wave movement and therefore possess the ability to follow development of the prices more closely
Below is a measurement of the components of skills with reference with the category of traders. Of course, these are just my opinions. Not meant to be used for any form of conclusive statements. Each box is just a short description of how each type of traders would possibly use the components of skills.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
320pips achieved
Cycle 1 done! This is the first cycle when I decided to put it up on my blog
To measure my trading performance, I do not use fixed period like day, week or month to determine my goals. I based it on a 300pips cycle. It allows me to measure and to modify my trading capabilities.
Screen Capture Software
To measure my trading performance, I do not use fixed period like day, week or month to determine my goals. I based it on a 300pips cycle. It allows me to measure and to modify my trading capabilities.
Screen Capture Software
2009-11-20 EURUSD Live Trade
Couldn't put this up in time as I need to prepare for a class this evening. Anyway, realized I should not have get out of my GBPUSD trade, forgot the big picture after a nap... hahaha...
As EURUSD gave me the signal first so I jumped in. It was a double top and by the ABCD pattern, this is an easy trade. So we are selling C, and maybe we could buy D on Monday
Result: 60pips and 90pips (net 75pips)
As EURUSD gave me the signal first so I jumped in. It was a double top and by the ABCD pattern, this is an easy trade. So we are selling C, and maybe we could buy D on Monday
Result: 60pips and 90pips (net 75pips)
Friday, November 20, 2009
GBPUSD 2009-11-20 Live Trade
Short GBPUSD. Still have not gotten confirmation.
Result: 0 pip
Trade closed. I didn't get the confirmation that I am right about this trade. Get out first then wait for next
Result: 0 pip
Trade closed. I didn't get the confirmation that I am right about this trade. Get out first then wait for next
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Missed all the moves...
Sigh.... After yesterday's late night. It cost me sleep and trading opportunities. Missed out my big moves. I must keep far far away from that "suay lang" （衰人）
Never mind, at least I got my hair cut from my pretty hair dresser and meet up with someone for coffee today. take a break.
Never mind, at least I got my hair cut from my pretty hair dresser and meet up with someone for coffee today. take a break.
EURUSD 2009-11-19 Live Analysis
Knowing how to trade resistance and support is the key fundamental to any technical trader. Refer to the chart below, you would notice trading can be simpler if you know how to find the levels.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
2009-11-17 EURJPY Live Trade
Price back to the support level. Still waiting for confirmation that the trade is right.
Result: Cut size to half when price doesn't look right. Remaining made a loss with 20pips. Apparently, its a wrong view, so got to take the loss. Oppss...
Thursday: Trade Review
Did my review for this trade. Ultimately, I was right about the direction, but it was a typical Gartley turned Butterfly. I don't think that there is a way to avoid this entirely, but if I had the time to follow this pair, I just need to get back in at point D and I would have made back the loss plus profit. That's why at times, it pays off to stick to a pair or two so that you can follow the price development
Result: Cut size to half when price doesn't look right. Remaining made a loss with 20pips. Apparently, its a wrong view, so got to take the loss. Oppss...
Thursday: Trade Review
Did my review for this trade. Ultimately, I was right about the direction, but it was a typical Gartley turned Butterfly. I don't think that there is a way to avoid this entirely, but if I had the time to follow this pair, I just need to get back in at point D and I would have made back the loss plus profit. That's why at times, it pays off to stick to a pair or two so that you can follow the price development
EURUSD 2009-11-17 Live Analysis
Tuesday: 17th
It was a tough day yesterday. Some support is seen at the current level and poised to find its point D (where the resistance is)
Update: 8:45pm (SGT)
Looks like the point D is already done deal. Just like one of our traders has analyzed. I missed the move on this pair, but took the hint and get onto GBPUSD.
It was a tough day yesterday. Some support is seen at the current level and poised to find its point D (where the resistance is)
Update: 8:45pm (SGT)
Looks like the point D is already done deal. Just like one of our traders has analyzed. I missed the move on this pair, but took the hint and get onto GBPUSD.
Monday, November 16, 2009
2009-11-13 EURJPY Live Trade
Forgot to post this...
Went long on EURJPY even though JPY has been pretty strong. Anyway, always trade what you see as a technical trader. Already gotten my confirmation that the trade is correct and TP1 hit with 65pips and leaving the rest for TP2.
Update: Trade Closed
Stop out, net 47.5pips profit. Market doesn't seem to have the strength, so choose to tighten stop.
Went long on EURJPY even though JPY has been pretty strong. Anyway, always trade what you see as a technical trader. Already gotten my confirmation that the trade is correct and TP1 hit with 65pips and leaving the rest for TP2.
Update: Trade Closed
Stop out, net 47.5pips profit. Market doesn't seem to have the strength, so choose to tighten stop.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-15 Live Analysis
This is my analysis done on Sunday. Was back late on Friday night and after a long day, I was slow to recognize the nice big move setup. I did put in a pending order trying to get a "good" price and buying some time to think about the entry. In less than 5 mins, it was gone.
Let's hope some of traders manage to catch this. This is a very typical pattern that we look out for.
Let's hope some of traders manage to catch this. This is a very typical pattern that we look out for.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
2009-11-12 EURJPY Live Trade
This is a simple play buying at support. I always advocate this "after the down move, where would the buyers come in". Pair showed that it potentially found some support, so I am a buyer.
50pips profit. :-)
Minimum effort, not much monitoring as I was giving a lesson to a trader. No need to move stop either.
50pips profit. :-)
Minimum effort, not much monitoring as I was giving a lesson to a trader. No need to move stop either.
2009-11-12 GBPUSD Live Trade
Did a good short on GBPUSD but never manage properly as I was busy with preparation work. Can't blame anyone but myself. In any case, still got 20pips.
2009-11-11 EURJPY Live Trade
Another trade for the evening, have not hit target yet, but I did protect it.
Result: After carrying the trade overnight, got stop out with 7 pips. Ouch.. Missed TP by couple of pips while I was sleeping. Could have closed with 40pips manually. That's why the key factor to profitability is trade management.
Result: After carrying the trade overnight, got stop out with 7 pips. Ouch.. Missed TP by couple of pips while I was sleeping. Could have closed with 40pips manually. That's why the key factor to profitability is trade management.
2009-11-11 EURUSD Live Trade
Nice bearish butterfly on M15. Out with 50pips for a quick one. some more US is bank holiday.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
EURJPY 2009-11-11 Live Analysis
Though, I am basis to sell on this pair, I know buyers likely come in at D, so I am waiting to short when the resistance manage to hold off the buyers and made them cover their trades
2009-11-10 EURUSD Live Trade (Update)
Sorry to post this so late. Been caught up with preparation work for my mentoring program.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
2009-11-10 EURUSD Live Trade
Playing on the retracement. Will keep it nimble til the market tells me otherwise.
Choose Your Battle Ground
Trading like doing any other business, you need to select the right partners, right suppliers, etc. Thus, when looking for setups, choose what you are familiar with and comfortable based on your time schedule, risk levels, etc.
Always choose the right battle ground to fight. Find the best conditions for yourself.
Always choose the right battle ground to fight. Find the best conditions for yourself.
EURUSD 2009-11-10 Live Analysis
Tuesday: 10th Nov
I am looking at completion of point D of the Bearish Gartley. The downside potential should be good if the entry is timely. DOW rallied 200 points, but pair has not moved much as compared to the earlier Asian session.
I am looking at completion of point D of the Bearish Gartley. The downside potential should be good if the entry is timely. DOW rallied 200 points, but pair has not moved much as compared to the earlier Asian session.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-09 Live Analysis
Let's review the price development of EURUSD for last week. A bullish Gartley was formed and price surged and now resisted as shown on chart.
Looking at the coming week road map, we are probably looking for point C of the bearish Gartley. i.e. Price may go down before coming up to re-test the highs again
Monday: 9th Nov, 12pm Update
previously, we were looking for a lower C, looks like this is what we have got
GBPUSD 2009-11-09 Live Analysis
Monday: 9th Nov
This is the day chart view of GBPUSD. Still expecting some move towards the low side before any re-test of the highs.
This is the day chart view of GBPUSD. Still expecting some move towards the low side before any re-test of the highs.
Friday, November 6, 2009
GBPUSD 2009-11-06 Live Analysis
A bearish signal at the current price level would provide a good confirmation for point D
2009-11-05 EURUSD Live Trade
Made a loss yesterday. I can be quite a stubborn trader at times and this is the typical ending that I would get.
Check out the next post why I should not have been so insistent.
Check out the next post why I should not have been so insistent.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
2009-11-05 EURJPY Live Trade
Setup: This is my trade setup for EURJPY this morning for a quick play on the BC leg I projected on H1
Trigger: Enter using M5. Take note of the price projections (orange arrows)
Result: Net profit 60pips. Compare the projected versus the actual price move.
Trigger: Enter using M5. Take note of the price projections (orange arrows)
Result: Net profit 60pips. Compare the projected versus the actual price move.
EURUSD 2009-11-05 Live Analysis
Thursday: 5th Nov
For yesterday's trade, could have targeted more as the price move should be seen as this wave pattern (blue arrows) as it is also the completion of the bullish Gartley. If price retrace from current level, the orange arrows might be a possible wave pattern.
For yesterday's trade, could have targeted more as the price move should be seen as this wave pattern (blue arrows) as it is also the completion of the bullish Gartley. If price retrace from current level, the orange arrows might be a possible wave pattern.
Trading is never a smooth ride
Today, I chatted with one of my trader friend. He is facing a series of losses and he started to lose control. This is a very typical scenario that we face as a trader.
As a trader, no matter how skilled or how familiar you are with your strategies, there would be times when you just couldn't recognize what you usually see. We face with decision making every time we look at the charts, we need to risk losing money whenever we put in a trade, we need to coup with the emotional ups and downs when we win or lose. It is already mentally stressful and add on the expectations we have on ourselves, we tend to over-pressurized ourselves. Every added stress would impact on our ability to think and decide, so keeping our head leveled is what we need to do.
When this happens to me I would drop my lot size (even as small as 1 or 2 minis), I would then build quickly from there. i.e. for every few good trades, I would increase the size till I am back to my normal. Learning how to get back on your feet is very important and learning to give yourself room to breathe is vital for our survival.
Dear friends, don't give up. Setbacks are inevitable. Without bad experiences, we won't be able to grow to be better.
Laurus once told me "Good judgment comes from experience and experience is learnt from bad judgment".
As a trader, no matter how skilled or how familiar you are with your strategies, there would be times when you just couldn't recognize what you usually see. We face with decision making every time we look at the charts, we need to risk losing money whenever we put in a trade, we need to coup with the emotional ups and downs when we win or lose. It is already mentally stressful and add on the expectations we have on ourselves, we tend to over-pressurized ourselves. Every added stress would impact on our ability to think and decide, so keeping our head leveled is what we need to do.
When this happens to me I would drop my lot size (even as small as 1 or 2 minis), I would then build quickly from there. i.e. for every few good trades, I would increase the size till I am back to my normal. Learning how to get back on your feet is very important and learning to give yourself room to breathe is vital for our survival.
Dear friends, don't give up. Setbacks are inevitable. Without bad experiences, we won't be able to grow to be better.
Laurus once told me "Good judgment comes from experience and experience is learnt from bad judgment".
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-04 Live Analysis
Wednesday: 04 Nov
Was too tired to notice this yesterday late night. This morning when I woke up, I reviewed and removed some of the outdated horizontal supports and resistance and should have went long. I would look for weakness to long this pair.
Was too tired to notice this yesterday late night. This morning when I woke up, I reviewed and removed some of the outdated horizontal supports and resistance and should have went long. I would look for weakness to long this pair.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-03 Live Analysis (Update)
Tuesday: 03 Nov
Price did not retrace to the "ideal" level, but we can see it is resisted as shown on chart.
Price did not retrace to the "ideal" level, but we can see it is resisted as shown on chart.
EURUSD 2009-11-03 Live Analysis
Tuesday: 03 Nov
Japan and is a holiday for today. Not expecting price to move in a nice motion. Possible plays in the afternoon for Euro session. Look out for the resistance and support as shown in the chart.
Japan and is a holiday for today. Not expecting price to move in a nice motion. Possible plays in the afternoon for Euro session. Look out for the resistance and support as shown in the chart.
Monday, November 2, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-02 Live Analysis
Monday: 2nd-Nov
This is could be the potential road map for the week, depending if we can get any of the confirmations.
This is could be the potential road map for the week, depending if we can get any of the confirmations.
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