Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Food For Thoughts - Predicting the Market

(We are sharing some of the stuffs that we read from books or online articles in our Forex Trading Blog.  Objectives is to throw some thoughts and ideas for traders.  Trading is a business, it can't be a blind trading system)

Most traders like to predict the market, but can it really be done?  In my opinion, the answer is no.  For me, I advocate management.  We manage our decision to put a trade, decision to call it off, decision to ride the trade, decision to risk how much, etc.


Analysis help us to come up with a trading plan. We interpret the market based on what we see on the charts, identify the setup according to our plan and execute with the plan risks and rewards.  And we execute on a timely manner and manage the trade as we gather more information from the market.

The above thoughts came about when I read this line below

"There is a huge difference between trading correctly and making an accurate market prediction"

Monday, June 28, 2010

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Powerful Candlestick formations

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)


Take a look at today's GBPUSD chart.  Switch to the weekly chart.  We see a bullish candlestick pattern - Three White Soldiers.


It is a good bullish momentum.  Thus, we can guess the price is going to be played in between 1.5000 to 1.5400 or 1.5500 region in coming days or weeks.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

How long do I need to be ready to trade for an income?

(This is an mini article series to encourage traders to learn how to be a better trader written by Eric Lye)

Below is an extract of the email I sent to our group of traders.

Hi All,

You have asked me this question before.  How long do I need to be ready to trade for an income?  I have been observing many of our traders and in constant communication with some.  And I think I would like to emphasize again.  The answer is - hours.

You need many hours to train yourself.  And hours do not include trading time or time monitoring the market.  Hours are clocked when you are spending time to learn and train yourself.   There are many aspects of learning and training.  Both technical and non-technical.


Technical areas include:

1. Chart analysis
To understand where the market is, and where it is going to go next.

Key concepts:
  • SR
  • market conditions (consolidating, trending)
  • wave theories (e.g Elliot, harmonics, etc)
  • MTF

2. Setup Identification
To know what kind of setup to trade in order to get into the market and how to set the right risks and rewards expectations.  Back in your days of indicators trading, you are probably talking about crosses or change of indicator colors.  Whatever it is, the identification of the setup is to tell you when is probably the best time to get into the market with exact known risk.

You'll need...
  • to understand the concept of reconciliation of MTF
  • to identify Reversals and Continuation patterns
  • to make use of SR, TL, channels

3. Triggering
To know what price to get into an entry (entries) using what size(s)
  • Test and Re-Test
  • Lower Time Frame (LTF)
  • Pullbacks or Re-tests

4. Trade Management
Understand what is confirmation and invalidation. 
  • Know when to pull the plug when trade is not going the right way
  • Know when to ride the trade
  • Know when to add positions
  • Know when to reduce positions
  • Know when to move your stops

5. Other Tools
There are many tools out there to help

Examples:
  • Fibo retracements and extension
  • Pivot Points
  • and many more....

Non-Technical


1. Risk Management
To know exactly what sorts of risks you would take and not take.  Make plans that would allow you to last long enough at current stage before you move on to the next stage.


2. Self Management
To know yourself and understand how do you make decisions to put on a trade, close off a trade completely or partially, increase risk, reduce risk, or not trade at all.  You have to know if you are in the ebb or flow of your trading.


3. Money and Growth Management
All businesses need plans to grow, sustain and evolve.  And this is probably one of the biggest area where you can't stop doing and exploring.


The list above is not exhaustive.  And according to experts, you need at least 5000 hours of training to be good with any crafts and I totally agree with it. 

Since last year Feb when I started to realize I was on the wrong path while still with XXX.  I have spent at least 400 days, minimum 12 hours a day, spending time to unlearn, relearn and train myself.  And this is real.  So, before you make any plans.  Ask yourself, are you ready?

Friday, June 25, 2010

AUDUSD 2010-06-25 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)


Below is our view on AUDUSD.  Look for the setup, and make sure the price confirm the view and manage the trade as it goes.  For the past two days, I have been illustrating the use of trend lines to look at trade direction and timing of possible setup and entries.
























[1pm (0500 GMT) Update]
Support broke.  Have to re-analyze this pair.


[Follow up]
Support eventually formed during US session





Thursday, June 24, 2010

EURUSD 2010-06-24 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Looks like we can buy on dips for EUR/USD today.


















The dip came and we were right about the trade call.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

EURJPY 2010-06-21 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Last week was tough as price consolidated.   However, price seems to be well supported.  The flow is up, and we look to buy on dips.

















[Follow Up]

Dips did came in the morning. 

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Trend Line

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

Trend Line is a good tool to a technical trader.  We can use it to

  • visualize the trend direction
  • where possibly the price would retrace to
  • market momentum
  • area of consolidation
  • and change of market direction

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

GBPUSD 2010-06-15 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

It has been some time for not posting in my blog.  I have been busy creating a new course to help inexperience traders to learn price action.  As we can see there are many times when analysis gets difficult, and the eyes see nothing and do not know how to trade.