Week 51 EuRJPY Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog. The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probabilities of the possible scenarios)

Last week, price attempted to make a higher high but eventually still fail and tipped over forming a rising wedge and a possible CD leg down move in coming days.

It's going to be a new year soon.  I hope traders that are following my blog would put in more effort to learn about price action and understand the market better.  It is pointless trying to learn "trading systems" or "high probability strategies" without the fundamental abilities to understand the market.  If you do not have strong economic background, technical charts is your best friend!  If you are not good in either both, then highly likely you are a gambler without knowing yourself.

Week 50 EURJPY Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog. The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I have not been able to update my blog for past weeks.  Trying to figure out ways to make a difference in the way we deliver our knowledge to traders.  (Have been trying the Google Wave, quite a cool tool)

Anyway, year coming to an end, but that doesn't means there is no trading opportunities :-)
But, do trade with caution and take it a bit slower.  What is going to happen next year is really difficult to say, but as long the charts tell us something, we plan accordingly

Week 46 EURJPY Post Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I always encourage my students when we are not trading well, having misreads, or miss trades.  Instead of giving up for the day, for the week, might as well put the time into productive activity like doing post analysis.

The purpose is to ask yourself if given a second chance how would I trade this.  This will help you to improve your recognition ability and reinforce your thought processes so that next time when similar pattern occurs, you have a better chance of catching it.

Forex trading is not necessary only for the faint heart.  You don't have to be fast, but you definitely need to plan.  

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis (Thur Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price found support and reversed up yesterday.  There was a bull flag in the lower time frame which presented opportunities for us to go long.

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis (Tue Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price is still consolidating within the inside bar.  i.e. market is undecided on its direction till a clear break above or below

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

There are many occasions when we try to analyze the market and not sure whether it would be up or down.  Example AUDUSD this week, it has came down by 300 pips last week and the immediate question is will it continue or reverse back to the previous flow.

Currently, it is sitting on the 61.8% Fibo but there is no evidence that the pair is turning up.  Thus, the plan is still to short this pair as of this morning unless the price starts to developed into a reversal pattern.

Week 45 EURUSD Analysis (Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price is at support zone, but EURUSD is pretty bearish as EURGBP has started its down flow.  While there isn't enough information to make a plan, avoid...

2010-11-10 EURJPY Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

H4 made a nice turn and bounced off from floor and the trend line.  Zoom into H1 to get a late entry and achieved a 2R trade.  In my opinion, price should be able to ride further, but my entry was not good enough and thus has less options to manage this trade.

Week 45 EURUSD Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Today, I am very happy not just because I caught a good trade, but also one of my student told me something when we met up to trade together today.


She said that after she has imagined the "pictures" and the price develop and fit into any of those, she would put on a trade as plan.  This is a great turning point for her, she finally understood what is trading.

And I remember just about 3 months back, she used to trade on M5 and her reason was she has no patience.  But today, she would plan her trades on H4 and had more winnings than losses since she started with me.  And after our review, the recent result is not because she changed her time frame, it is because she knows what she is waiting for and that's where the patience will automatically be in place.  She has started to understand the why behind the how...


Anyway, below is my "picture" for EURUSD.

Week 45 EURJPY Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

What are the secrets of trading?  One of my answers is ability to plan.  To all my readers, if you are trading on a setup by setup basis, then likely you are not planning enough.  

Let's take EURJPY for an example, with the price action, it looks to break out of the trading range but it may or may not happen.  As traders, we do not predict the market but we manage the possibilities.  i.e. we plan for each scenario and see how we can manage our trades based on information given by the market as price progress throughout the week.

GBPUSD 2010-11-01 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I were just chatting with another peer trader of mine the other day about how do we trade.  And we came to the conclusion that we are just trying to imagine what is the likely picture.  If the market fits the picture that we imagined, then there is a likely trade.  If not go back to the drawing board and imagine another one.

The road map is where we thought out the possible scenarios (possibilities) and decide which one may have a higher probability of happening.

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Recognizing Consolidations

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)


I have been really busy for past weeks and have no time to post on my blog.  Below is an extract from my training materials which I have been busy with.

It is important to recognize market consolidations because this is where most traders lose money and because the consolidations can stretch into few months, many traders thought that their trading system do not work and give up trading entirely or went on searching for  new trading systems.  And again, the systems seem to work for a while and "stopped" working when market goes into consolidation.


The blue rectangles are the consolidation zones, but not all consolidation are trading range.  Thus, the application of your techniques need to be clear.  All these are part of learning how to understand the market.

2010-10-21 AUDUSD Live Trade

I conducted a Forex workshop yesterday and during the live market analysis, I illustrated the use of Hexametry Framework to make trade plans.  Fortunately and unfortunately, the setup came around 11pm which is after the workshop.  Unfortunate is because I could not illustrate the follow through of Hexametry.  Fortunate is because I get to trade when I came back home.  :-)

Below is the chart for the trade

Free Workshop

I would be conducting a workshop at Traders Round Table on 21st of Oct, 7pm.

In this workshop I would share our Hexametry Framework.  How it helped with my trading and at the same time helped me to self learn along the way.  In the workshop I am going to illustrate how to put Hexametry Framework at work using Oct's NFP news as an example.

Register for free using the below link through Traders Round Table's website

Register for the workshop


What: FX Trader’s Framework by Eric Lye

When: Thursday, October 21, 2010 7:00 PM

Where: POMO Mall (Fomerly Paradiz Centre)
#03-04/05/06,1 Selegie Road, (S) 188306
Singapore

GBPUSD 2010-10-04 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I am still bullish on GBP/USD

2010-10-01 GBPUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

After being sabotaged by someone from UK on  Tue, avoid the pair till today which has a much wider range, i.e. greater potential.

Trading Price Action Workshop on 6th Oct

Date / Time : 6th Oct, Wednesday, 7:00pm - 10:00pm
Venue : SMU - School of Econs and Social Science (Seminar Room 2.10) -
Opp. Hotel Rendezvous
Fees : US$30 per person (via Credit Card or PayPal upon RSVP)
RSVP here : http://www.meetup.com/forextrading-152/calendar/14944986

Workshop Outline :
* Price moves in WAVES!
* Understanding of Price Action through Multiple Time Frames (MTF)
* Finding the Flow
* Identifying Setups
* Timing yourself into the market with Reasonable Risks
* Hands-on Practice (IMPT : Bring your laptops!)

Let the market do its job???

(This is an mini article series to encourage traders to learn how to be a better trader written by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog)

There is a saying of after you have put in your entry, let the market do its job.  I can't possibly argue that this statement is wrong, however we can't be applying it blindly as well, especially when you are not trading well.


I have seen traders lost control because of this kind of thoughts.  Especially when they have recent losses, the 2nd voice in the head would say something like "arrggh... why am I wrong, why I didn't take the 30pips first...".  

Then next thing that happens, they see the usual setup, went for the entry and close their computer and let the market do its job.  I can't say much for people that are trading part time and do not rely on trading for a living, but for those are doing it for a living or trying to make trading a full time career, I do not think that market has a job to do.  The trader should do his/her job - i.e. manage your trades and yourself.


Trying to trade with your eyes closed is no different from driving on the road with your eyes closed.  It is suicidal.  Then again, I would hear traders saying they have to stay away from the computer so that their psychology won't be affected.  And to me that is really a lame and lousy excuse.  Most successful business did well not because they have a unique product or in our case a special, reliable trading strategy or system; they did well because the manage their operations and risks well.  Thus, as traders we need manage our trades and risks well in order to make this business of us profitable.




Written by
Eric Lye

GBPUSD 2010-09-28 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

A quiet Monday as expected after strong breakout from last week.  Trend is still up, but I am expecting some retracement. 

 

EURUSD 2010-09-21 Post Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

This is a post analysis of a trade I misread during the sluggish day and missed a good setup.  Post analysis is a very important activity regardless you have made a trade or not.  It always provide us with learning points and continues to shape our thought process so that we get better in identifying opportunities over time.

EURUSD 2010-09-21 Road Map

2010-09-20 GBPUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

As planned, there was opportunity to take the retracement leg.  Though there was a head and shoulder, it doesn't means it will reverse all the way.  i.e. we should never apply all these pattern blindly, you would need to reconcile to higher time frame to know possibly where the prices are going.

GBPUSD 2010-09-20

GBPUSD 2010-09-20 Live Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Looks like it might be a slow start for the week (but I can change my stance after 45 secs saying this... :-O).  Anyway, technical trading is about collecting information from the charts and decide course of actions.  As far as we could see, price might need some retracement but the flow is generally still up for the dollar pairs.

GBPUSD 2010-09-20

Is trading too good to be true?

There is a good article on Sunday Times on 19th Sep to warn people about Forex training courses.  There are too much hype about turning small capital into hundreds of thousand or millions.  It is not impossible, but it won't happen for most if not all people.

Trading is a good skill to pick up regardless you are planning a career change or for additional knowledge to help in your investments or looking for supplementary income. 

The most important fact is that you need to pick up the skills first.  And this requires a lot of learning and training.  It will take nothing less than 5000 hours of practices and trainings with clear objectives.

AUDJPY 2010-09-17 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Certainly I won't look to short this pair as I do not know when more intervention will happen.  I will continue to buy on yen pairs until the higher time frame shows sign of exhaustion or turn.

2010-09-16 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

This time round luck is on my side to pick the right pair that moved.  :-)
Need to thanks one of my students as well when she sent me her EURGBP trade plan for review and discussion.  And since I agree with her analysis, naturally I just pick EURUSD for a buy when the setup happens.  The entry window period for this was a bit short.
Was having a chat with a trader I just get to know and price shot up to hit first TP and hours later second TP

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Analyzing Waves in Multiple Time Frames

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

Understanding Multiple Time Frames is the fundamental skill of a trader which most people aren't being taught with the correct concept.  It is a must have skill. 

2010-09-14 AUDUSD Post Analysis

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

I did not do this trade but with the analysis of this pair, I caught a quick 50pips move for AUDJPY.

AUDUSD 2010-09-14

2010-09-13 GBPUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Didn't have much to post in time.  Hopfully, there is still learning value in this trade

GBPUSD 2010-09-13

2010-09-08 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

During our today's online live analysis, we identified a possible buy on EURUSD and it came earlier than I have expected.

EURUSD 2010-09-08

Daily foreign-exchange turnover hits $4 trillion (Percentage share of the U.S. dollar has continued its slow decline)

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Daily turnover in the world's foreign-exchange markets has soared to $4 trillion, the Bank for International Settlements said Wednesday. 

In its survey, conducted every three years, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS found that global turnover in April 2010 was up 20% from $3.3 trillion in April 2007.

Spot transactions led the rise, increasing to $1.5 trillion a day in 2010 from $1 trillion in 2007. Other forex instruments saw turnover rise 7%, for an average daily turnover of $2.5 trillion.
Britain retained its title as the top player in the forex market, with British-based banks accounting for 36.7% of daily turnover, up from 34.6% in 2007.

The United States followed with 18%, while Japan accounted for 6%. Rounding out the top players, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong accounted for 5% each, while Australia-based banks accounted for 4%.

Source from MarketWatch.com
Full article http://www.marketwatch.com/story/daily-currency-trading-turnover-hits-4-trillion-2010-09-01?dist=beforebell

Trader's Checklist

(This is an mini article series to encourage traders to learn how to be a better trader written by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog)

When you are not trading well, is it common that you would think that your knowledge is not enough and you need to seek out for more?  Are you searching for more methods and techniques? Or even systems or strategies?

I am not saying you should stop learning.  Instead of learning "new thing", they should be an add-on to your base.  Thus, building of your foundations is far more important than anything else.  So, what should be your checklist?


 
1.  Hard Skills

• Trading concepts - Understanding of market conditions
• Technical Analysis - SR, Chart Patterns (West), Candlesticks Patterns (East)
• Concepts of Waves - ABCD, Harmonic, Elliot Wave, etc
• Understanding of Multiple Time Frames (MTF)
• Tools - Fibonacci (R, Ext, Exp), Pivot Points, Trend Lines, Channels, etc

2.  Soft Skills

• Trade management - Know your options
• Recognizing your thought process and decision making process - how you want to trade, why such entries, why such exits, etc
• Position Sizing
• How to increase your R multiples
• Performance tracking - Trade log
• How to recognize and decide what are the losers and winners trade, so that we can cut the former and ride the latter

If I were to put a percentage to the efforts you should put into the hard and soft skills, I would say it is 20% and 80%.  For a beginner you would probably spend most of your time working on the hard skills.  For those that have gone past this stage, most of the effort should channel into the soft skills portion while continue to upgrade your hard skills level.

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - When a bear flag is not a bear flag

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

Play this in full screen mode

When a bear flag is not a bear flag on Prezi

2010-08-26 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

This is not my trade. It was a trade being done by one of our member in our meet up group.  The position was already taken to sell EURUSD at 1.2715.  We talked about the confirmation of the sell but it did not happen.  Instead, invalidation sets in.

Thus, by identifying invalidation.  We can get out of trade with smaller loss than plan, which contributes to our bottom line.

ERUUSD 2010-06-26

2010-08-26 GBPUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

We had a online practice session with our meet up group at 8.30pm, saw the market did not react negatively to the news.  And I presented the idea that there might be a possible long position.  Didn't have to wait until midnight, the entry was at 9.45pm, and scaled out in 1 hr.  Position is risk free and see how far it can go.

GBPUSD 2010-08-26

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Fibonacci Expansion (Extension)

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

Many traders are confuse with Fibonacci Expansion and Extension.  The primary usage is for projection of price target and below picture explains the concept of the two.

Explanation of Fibonacci Expansion and Extension

EURUSD 2010-08-24 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Tracking this pair for the week.  The day candle closed at 1.2630.  It is a confirmation of the continuation pattern and we might look at price going down to 1.2400 region.  There would be support levels in the LTF that need to take caution.  Trade with care.

EURUSD 2010-08-24 Analysis

2010-08-23 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

It was really a struggle yesterday trying to get into this pair.  I think other traders in my group fared a lot better than me.  They went in early, hang on with lots of conviction.  I was in but came out and waited for the break before I find my entry again.

EURUSD 2010-08-23

EURUSD 2010-08-22 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Preparing for the new week.  We have quite a good indication that this pair is heading lower.  I would look for a good sell signal and see if I could hold on to the trade, but it all depends on the market.

EURUSD 2010-08-22

EURUSD 2010-08-20 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I ought to slap myself for the day.  I slacked and did not do my groundwork and thus missing the move that I waited for 1 week.

EURUSD 2010-08-20

Market in Consolidation

Not much to post this week, market in consolidation.  Small wins, small losses.  No fun.  I wait for more range to play...  EURUSD, 2 days, 100pips range.

Rather go write up more materials...

Close shop for the week

Looks like I can close shop for the week.  313 pips for intraday trades.

Max risk 1.83%, Max Loss -0.86%, Max Win 4.75%
(6 trades, 5 win, 1 loss)

10.4% Return for the week.


TGIF!

Cheers
Eric

2010-08-12 GBPUSD (Student's trade)

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

This is a trade done by my student.  It's always a happy and fulfilled feeling to see students get back up on their feet and trade well again.

GBPUSD 2010-08-12

EURUSD 2010-08-13 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Today's plan - Price possibly doing BC leg of harmonic wave pattern ABCD.  Look for evidence that price is going up

EURUSD 2010-08-13

2010-08-12 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Entered on M15, scaled out on TP1, waiting for TP2.  Trade is risk free, hopefully trade will work out with the news coming out

[8.20pm Update]  yeah... TP2 hit before news (done and dusted). 2.4R trade

EURUSD 2010-08-12

Announcement

Join us in our new Meet Up Group

http://www.meetup.com/Forexlye-Trading-Room/

EURUSD 2010-08-12 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

In 3 days, EURUSD wipe out the gains accumulated through 3 weeks.  2 scenarios I would plan to play this out, but would need market to provide more information.  Watch for fakey if you want to play continuation of the bearish momentum.

EURUSD 2010-08-12 Analysis

2010-08-11 EURUSD Live Trade (Update)

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Market is kind today.  Finally got to sleep early.  EURUSD already stretch close to 300 pips day range, time to get out of market.  This would serve as a good mental booster, don't want to risk it.  Has been some time, not having a 3R multiples return trade.

EURUSD 2010-08-11 Trade Closed

2010-08-11 EURUSD Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Managed to open the trade around 5pm and the continuation setup was confirmed by end of candle.  Hold on to the trade and managed to scale out with 92 pips profit after 4 hours.  Position is risk free now, hopefully can create an edge for me to add and ride this down flow to around 1.2738 region. (estimated level)

EURUSD 2010-08-11 Entry

EURUSD 2010-08-11 Scaled Out

2010-08-09 AUDUSD Live Trade Follow up (FOMC Spoiled the plan)

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

It was a good decision to close off the trade first and waited for FOMC.  At least I still got a decent 83pips profit.  If price remained at this level, market might go into tight consolidation again or the chances of price going down should be higher than going up.

AUDUSD 2010-08-09 Follow up (Trade Closed)

2010-08-09 AUDUSD Live Trade Follow up

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Even if we have missed the earlier entry as posted by me, there would be opportunities after price has confirmed its immediate direction.  It gave us indication that we should follow through with plan.

AUDUSD 2010-08-10 Follow through with plan

2010-08-09 AUDUSD Analysis

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

Following the plan I have laid out in the morning for AUDUSD, shorted when price complete its retracement (since my assumption is price is going down)

AUDUSD 2010-08-09

AUDUSD 2010-08-09 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

AUDUSD is potentially in the PRZ.  We can identify a rising wedge, if it tip over, price would head south till the next support.  I would plan to look for opportunity to short. 

AUDUSD H4 2010-08-09

Trading Psychology

(This is an mini article series to encourage traders to learn how to be a better trader written by Eric Lye)

Trading psychology   has been a big topic in the trader's world.  However, there are too many that use it as an excuse for losing.  Like we always said, trading is a business. Do you blame on your psychology when things are not working well in your business?


Clearly, any successful business man will tell a straight "No!".  


Making losses can be due to wrong assessment of the market, bad execution, or lousy management or making decision at the wrong timing or with wrong basis.


To make good assessment (notice I didn't say right assessment) of the market, you need to have good understanding of the market and how you approach the market.


To repeat good execution, you need to know the exact mechanics of the way you trade.  Good techniques and skills come from relentless practices and training.


To manage properly, you need to understand your risk and how you should manage your money.  Know when to be aggressive and conservative.  The market is dynamic, you can't have just a single mindset to deal with it.  Adaptability becomes the key.


To make the right decisions, you need to know yourself, your own character and choose the right opportunities to make trading decisions ("choose your old battle ground, do not fight all battles") with sound basis and never (almost) by emotions.


In summary, trading psychology to me is all of the above.

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Managing Expectations

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

I have been speaking to some of our traders lately.  One thing we noticed about the market is that there are days where the daily range is less than 100, 120...  This means when we went into some intra-day trades, we are not going to get much.


If you hang on to the risk-reward concept that is only looking at the absolute numbers, then you are going to feel miserable.


Adapt to the market, take whatever the market gives.  This would be my advice.  Or look at H4 to seek out the right level to go into intra-day trades, thus avoiding the small sub waves that can only give you 40pips reward.

GBPUSD 2010-07-20 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Below link is my analysis done in a different format.

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B8xsTBSOzNmjMzAzZWFkYTEtNTBmOC00ZmUyLTk2NzktYjA2OGI5ZTUyZjli&hl=en&authkey=CJDY1cAB

Forex Trading Tips and Tricks - Trade Management

(This is a mini-series of Forex Trading tips and tricks by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  Our objective is to help traders learn how to trade Forex properly, be educated and excel in their career)

When I talked to some of my traders now, I can clearly distinguish two types of traders. One that is still learning how to trade, the other already know how to trade.


For the traders that already know how to trade, we rarely talked about how to get into entry, price, timing, whatsoever.  It's all questions revolving how to manage this trade.


This is a reason why we never blindly follow any system.  This is because trade management is the real key to profitability.