Week 46 EURJPY Post Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I always encourage my students when we are not trading well, having misreads, or miss trades.  Instead of giving up for the day, for the week, might as well put the time into productive activity like doing post analysis.

The purpose is to ask yourself if given a second chance how would I trade this.  This will help you to improve your recognition ability and reinforce your thought processes so that next time when similar pattern occurs, you have a better chance of catching it.

Forex trading is not necessary only for the faint heart.  You don't have to be fast, but you definitely need to plan.  

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis (Thur Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price found support and reversed up yesterday.  There was a bull flag in the lower time frame which presented opportunities for us to go long.

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis (Tue Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price is still consolidating within the inside bar.  i.e. market is undecided on its direction till a clear break above or below

Week 46 AUDUSD Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

There are many occasions when we try to analyze the market and not sure whether it would be up or down.  Example AUDUSD this week, it has came down by 300 pips last week and the immediate question is will it continue or reverse back to the previous flow.

Currently, it is sitting on the 61.8% Fibo but there is no evidence that the pair is turning up.  Thus, the plan is still to short this pair as of this morning unless the price starts to developed into a reversal pattern.

Week 45 EURUSD Analysis (Update)

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Price is at support zone, but EURUSD is pretty bearish as EURGBP has started its down flow.  While there isn't enough information to make a plan, avoid...

2010-11-10 EURJPY Live Trade

(This is a live trade shared by Eric Lye in his Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we trade and provide the learning points.  Note that there is no absolute right or wrong about a trade, it is all about managing it well)

H4 made a nice turn and bounced off from floor and the trend line.  Zoom into H1 to get a late entry and achieved a 2R trade.  In my opinion, price should be able to ride further, but my entry was not good enough and thus has less options to manage this trade.

Week 45 EURUSD Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

Today, I am very happy not just because I caught a good trade, but also one of my student told me something when we met up to trade together today.


She said that after she has imagined the "pictures" and the price develop and fit into any of those, she would put on a trade as plan.  This is a great turning point for her, she finally understood what is trading.

And I remember just about 3 months back, she used to trade on M5 and her reason was she has no patience.  But today, she would plan her trades on H4 and had more winnings than losses since she started with me.  And after our review, the recent result is not because she changed her time frame, it is because she knows what she is waiting for and that's where the patience will automatically be in place.  She has started to understand the why behind the how...


Anyway, below is my "picture" for EURUSD.

Week 45 EURJPY Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market using price action and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

What are the secrets of trading?  One of my answers is ability to plan.  To all my readers, if you are trading on a setup by setup basis, then likely you are not planning enough.  

Let's take EURJPY for an example, with the price action, it looks to break out of the trading range but it may or may not happen.  As traders, we do not predict the market but we manage the possibilities.  i.e. we plan for each scenario and see how we can manage our trades based on information given by the market as price progress throughout the week.

GBPUSD 2010-11-01 Analysis

(Technical analysis done by Eric Lye in our Forex Trading Blog.  The purpose is to share how we analyze the market and put ourselves on the side of higher probability of things happening.)

I were just chatting with another peer trader of mine the other day about how do we trade.  And we came to the conclusion that we are just trying to imagine what is the likely picture.  If the market fits the picture that we imagined, then there is a likely trade.  If not go back to the drawing board and imagine another one.

The road map is where we thought out the possible scenarios (possibilities) and decide which one may have a higher probability of happening.