Thursday, March 31, 2011

Week 13 GBPUSD - Thursday update

Price has been struggling, during the last 3 days, nimble play would be most profitable.  Buying low and selling high in LTF would have worked out pretty fine.

So far, big picture has not changed.  And we trade according to what we see, though we might have a different plan in mind.

In my opinion, if you are trading setup by setup, i.e. you do not have an overall plan, in the long run, it is very difficult to make decent money out of trading.  Don't forget there would always be periods where no matter how you trade or how you adjust to the market, you just can't make money.  And during such periods, if you can't control your risks, that is most likely the end of your trading career (got to make it sound serious :-P, but seriously, it might happen...)

Below is just an update



Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Week 13 GBPUSD Tue 12pm Update

Though we might have the bigger picture that price may break low, the question is we do not know when.  With new market information, we see that price might be moving up before any possible down move.  Thus it's either we do a buy now then sell later.  Not forgetting price has dropped a lot, it might need some retracement and if it forms an ABCD, then it would be perfect.

If you are an day trader, then it would be easier to follow the price development.  If you have less time to trade, then waiting for a good sell setup at the imagined point D would be a better choice.

There are many options in trading, even a sell at current price may not necessary means you would lose.  It all depends how you plan and manage your risks unless price shoots all the way past last high without good retracement.  (Hint* grid trading)


Sunday, March 27, 2011

Week 13 GBPUSD Big Picture

Below is one of my plans if price broke low in coming week(s).  i.e. I would plan to sell on every rally.

ok... correction.  "Every" sounds too certain.  Main plan is to sell as long as bearishness is sustained.  :-)




Monday, March 14, 2011

Week 11 EURUSD Analysis

This analysis is for teaching purposes.  Usually, I don't have such complicated analysis to help me with my day to day trade planning.  However, big picture is always critical in defining our road map.  Just for sharing...




Thursday, March 10, 2011

What is your edge?

Lately we have some good discussion within our group of traders talking about creating an edge in our trading.  And one of our traders was asking how to create an edge when the technique she used did not work for her but work fine for others.


below were some good replies from other traders


Trader 1:


I started forex trading back in 2007, began learning the basics from experienced traders, then went on and attended several stock and forex trading courses. I continue to learn from websites, through active participation in forums where I learned from many other traders, I read books and also do my own research and self-study. After more than three years, I am still learning every day. I continue to attend workshops and seminars to develop myself to be a better trader. I have already clocked several thousands of hours doing all these. Also, on my bookshelf at home are many books which will provide various different answers to your question WHY???.

To be a trader is starting on an extremely long journey with no destination in sight. There will be many roadblocks, pit stops and milestones along the way but never an end to this journey.  To continue in this journey, I urge you and also all others in this forum to be active. Everyone can be active by posting your market analysis, trade plans, winning and losing trades, post trade reviews, and also asking questions whatsoever which will help you learn faster and trade better.    

You need to put in the hours to create that EDGE for yourself. It’s unique and cannot be replicated.

Trader 2:
When you mention technique, do you mean technique for analysis?  Technique for entering trades? Technique for trade management?  When I look at what is not working out for me, I look at which aspect of trading am I tackling.  I ask myself what is it that I'm lacking, and what I can do to bridge the gap.  It could mean more reading, more training, more practising, asking more questions, more thinking.  Very often, it is a lot of practising.  Backtesting with past data, and forward testing/practising in real-time.

Sometimes I also had to seek the answer within myself, and see if there is any conflicting issues within myself and the technique.  Not all techniques are suitable for everyone.  If the technique is not in line with your beliefs or thinking or trading schedule, then you either change the technique, or work on it to change your beliefs/thinking.

And mastering the technique does not necessarily mean you see immediate result in your trading or become profitable.  It just means you have gained one more skill in one aspect of your trading, and that you are probably moving one step closer to having an edge.

I summed it up:
My purpose of starting this topic is to trigger your thinking.  

Systems, strategies or techniques are very rule based skills and are considered as hard skills.  If based on these, you can become a successful trader then there would be at least 50% more profitable traders in the whole world.  These components are just the start point for you to kick start your learning.  They are just foundational skills.  By knowing them alone, it does not provide you with consistent result. 

Trading is a business that requires a lot of thinking, a lot of decision making, a lot of planning.  The hard skills are helping tools, but without a proper frame of mind, they are useless.  I created Hexametry Framework is to address this key that most people do not know.  I am not saying that I have created something unique, in reality all successful traders or to-be successful traders would have their own framework or their sets of thought processes.  And they would naturally harmonize in many ways though they may not be entirely the same.

The good thing about trading as a business is that the entry barrier is low.  And it can be self learnt.  Learning is a crucial part of the business and it is never ending. That means the attitude to learn and the ability to learn are required qualities of a trader.  The catch?  The learning curve is long and steep.

There are just so many things to talk about trading and I can't possibly list them all.  However, there is one thing that I would urge everyone to create, your self-awareness.  Know yourself.  Know what works and what not work for you.  Know your learning capabilities.  Know your limitations.  Know your potential.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Week 10 EURJPY Road Map

I have been making bullish calls for EURUSD, GBPUSD.  I guess it's time for EURJPY