[2010-01-04] Review
[2009-12-28] Just realized that today is UK holiday. Close off the trade, don't play play...
Monday, December 28, 2009
2009-12-28 GBPUSD Live Trade
[2009-12-28] Just realized that today is UK holiday. Close off the trade, don't play play...
Trading Discipline
I was discussing with one our traders last Saturday and a very interesting point that I felt that I must share.
In our journey of learning how to trade, it is extremely common that we would blame ourselves for not being discipline. Is it really the case? We recollected our experiences, through courses that we have taken up, books that we read, information from the internet, we gathered the "fact" that as a trader we must be discipline.
It is ultimately true, but before we can learn to be discipline, the actual steps is to learn the right skills, build it up through experiential learning and become aware of what we know. And not blindly follow rules and call it discipline.
It's like in the army, I would not just order my soldiers to follow orders, but to explain to them the rationale and get their understanding before issuing an order (whenever possible). If it's blind orders, soldiers tend to be rebellious or perform the required in a haphazard way. The same would be applied to ourselves as a trader.
In our journey of learning how to trade, it is extremely common that we would blame ourselves for not being discipline. Is it really the case? We recollected our experiences, through courses that we have taken up, books that we read, information from the internet, we gathered the "fact" that as a trader we must be discipline.
It is ultimately true, but before we can learn to be discipline, the actual steps is to learn the right skills, build it up through experiential learning and become aware of what we know. And not blindly follow rules and call it discipline.
It's like in the army, I would not just order my soldiers to follow orders, but to explain to them the rationale and get their understanding before issuing an order (whenever possible). If it's blind orders, soldiers tend to be rebellious or perform the required in a haphazard way. The same would be applied to ourselves as a trader.
At the end of the day, trading is still about knowledge and skills as our foundation.
It is not about finding a system or strategy.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Identifying Price Patterns over MTF
This is one of the exercise done by my students during the class. It's a great example of identifying price patterns over MTF
Monday, December 21, 2009
What a Trader needs?
I have been asking myself what it takes to be a trader that trades for a living. It took me months before I get to find out the answers. That's right, answers - plural form.
Most of us would start out looking for systems, strategies or techniques to trade. They do form the various components of the answer, but they aren't the answers. Like any profession or business, it order to survive and do well, you need a framework.
What is a framework? It is a set of thought processes, execution procedures and management rules. They are required to govern the day to day operations, set pace towards achieving the goals set, and to manage the exceptions that surface every now and then.
As a trader, the thought processes would largely involve analysis and the decisions to put on a trade. And having a consistent approach to our trades provides us the when and how to get into trades. However, what directly affects our P&L or bottom line is how we manage the entire business of trading. I strongly believe if we have all these being pieced up together, profitability would become a by product.
Most of us would start out looking for systems, strategies or techniques to trade. They do form the various components of the answer, but they aren't the answers. Like any profession or business, it order to survive and do well, you need a framework.
What is a framework? It is a set of thought processes, execution procedures and management rules. They are required to govern the day to day operations, set pace towards achieving the goals set, and to manage the exceptions that surface every now and then.
As a trader, the thought processes would largely involve analysis and the decisions to put on a trade. And having a consistent approach to our trades provides us the when and how to get into trades. However, what directly affects our P&L or bottom line is how we manage the entire business of trading. I strongly believe if we have all these being pieced up together, profitability would become a by product.
Friday, December 18, 2009
GBPUSD 2009-12-18 Live Analysis
My analysis. I won't be trading today. TGIF!!!!
End of Day Update:
Understanding of price action would help traders to plan their trades. And it is a must in Technical Trading. It doesn't matter if you use indicators or not, without the understanding of Price Action, you are just driving in a pitch dark road with a torchlight (not even the car head lamps)
Thursday, December 17, 2009
2009-12-17 GBPJPY Live Trade
Entered this morning, long struggle. But someone gave me some wise words.
"The difference between winning and losing involve correctly identifying the reversal zone and placing the stops correctly. So even if the movement is crap (it is most of the time in reversal zone), it can still be a high probability trade if the zone is correctly identified and SL placed correctly."
For those who have not learnt to trade, the above sounds like bs, talking the obvious, but as a true trader, you would know how tough it is to do the above.
"The difference between winning and losing involve correctly identifying the reversal zone and placing the stops correctly. So even if the movement is crap (it is most of the time in reversal zone), it can still be a high probability trade if the zone is correctly identified and SL placed correctly."
For those who have not learnt to trade, the above sounds like bs, talking the obvious, but as a true trader, you would know how tough it is to do the above.
Trading Signals - Why I don't give?
I have been meeting a lot of people these few weeks and a common question that I would get is if I could give them trade signals. And my answer is a flat "No". Even for the analysis I put up on my blog, sometimes I am worried that readers would take the face value and jump into trades. Trading involves money and thus I do have social responsibilities in the stuffs I post.
The are many reasons why I do not give trade signals. Firstly, it's the trade management skill. When two traders taking the same view on the same trade, it does not mean that both would profit. One may lose money or get out with a small profit while the other could have rode the trade and hit his 150pips target. Moreover, the loser could be trading on a smaller account size and thus the risk would look sizable, say 3% risk, whereas the winner who is on a much bigger account size would feel more at ease as this trade could be just taking 0.8% risk.
At the end of the day, we want to learn how to fish and not get a fish from someone else. Trading is never simple, it is hard work.
The are many reasons why I do not give trade signals. Firstly, it's the trade management skill. When two traders taking the same view on the same trade, it does not mean that both would profit. One may lose money or get out with a small profit while the other could have rode the trade and hit his 150pips target. Moreover, the loser could be trading on a smaller account size and thus the risk would look sizable, say 3% risk, whereas the winner who is on a much bigger account size would feel more at ease as this trade could be just taking 0.8% risk.
At the end of the day, we want to learn how to fish and not get a fish from someone else. Trading is never simple, it is hard work.
2009-12-16 GBPUSD Live Trade
I must admit that I was gambling on this. Making a bet with potential good rewards.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
EURUSD 2009-12-14 Live Analysis
Monday: 14th
Price has come down to this lower level after the break last week, expect price to fluctuate in between this level before the market decides to rally or do more correction.
Price has come down to this lower level after the break last week, expect price to fluctuate in between this level before the market decides to rally or do more correction.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Quick Update
Slow market, most pairs are caught in a triangle. I would wait for a breakout first then look for new opportunities.
There is a saying "To win the trading game, you need to learn how to survive long enough to see the outcome"
There is a saying "To win the trading game, you need to learn how to survive long enough to see the outcome"
Thursday, December 10, 2009
EURUSD 2009-12-10 Live Analysis
I think I need to give myself a *bonk*. Price already moved. Woke up late and have to give this a miss. Price sat on the support and formed a nice double bottom.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Monday, December 7, 2009
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
2009-12-03 AUDUSD Live Trade
Took some time for the point D to form, but it still came.
Result: +20pips
The setup has been invalidated. Closed with 20pips profit. Still a sluggish day
Result: +20pips
The setup has been invalidated. Closed with 20pips profit. Still a sluggish day
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Trade Management
How well we manage our trade affects our bottom line directly. Knowing the basis of getting into a trade and thereby determining the criteria when the trade is confirmed by the market and the criteria where the entire setup has or going to fail, is therefore important.
As the trade progress, knowing when to move your stops, and revising your failure criteria would determine how much you can profit from the trade.
As the trade progress, knowing when to move your stops, and revising your failure criteria would determine how much you can profit from the trade.
Monday, November 30, 2009
2009-11-30 EURUSD Live Trade
I would take this morning's drawing in my analysis and superimposed on my chart when I did my entry. On the chart, the right shoulder turn out to be higher. Thus, knowing how to validate a setup is a skill that a trader needs to acquire.
Result: Closed 1/3 with 70pips, but remaining stop out during the US session. Net 23pips.
Result: Closed 1/3 with 70pips, but remaining stop out during the US session. Net 23pips.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Keep Trading Simple
I always hear this - Keep Trading Simple. I have been wondering how true is this. Trading is never simple. It involves risks, money sense, and decision making process to put on a trade. It is the same as a business, it is tough, especially the management part.
I have been telling people and traders that trading is never simple. Then one day, I actually used this phrase when explaining certain concepts to a trader. I was liked, "what happened?".
Then, I realized is because I have build a structure on my thought process and created a methodology to learn. With these process steps, it flows with the thoughts and thus we can keep things "simple" by following the process and not jumping from one thought to another.
I have seen other people's structure that are so complicated that are stuffed with rules, observations, and excuses and yet they try to pass this on to their students and ask them to keep trading simple. In short, I encourage traders to learn more and focus on understanding your thought process and build a structure around it. This, in my opinion, would help you to strive well in the journey of a trader.
I have been telling people and traders that trading is never simple. Then one day, I actually used this phrase when explaining certain concepts to a trader. I was liked, "what happened?".
Then, I realized is because I have build a structure on my thought process and created a methodology to learn. With these process steps, it flows with the thoughts and thus we can keep things "simple" by following the process and not jumping from one thought to another.
I have seen other people's structure that are so complicated that are stuffed with rules, observations, and excuses and yet they try to pass this on to their students and ask them to keep trading simple. In short, I encourage traders to learn more and focus on understanding your thought process and build a structure around it. This, in my opinion, would help you to strive well in the journey of a trader.
Melvin's Big Catch
I didn't had the time to catch this, but at least one of us did. This was predicted two days back, and we have been waiting for it. This is the power of understanding price action that is predictive compared to indicators trading which is totally reactive.
This is a 300pips catch! Congrats bro!
This is a 300pips catch! Congrats bro!
Thursday, November 26, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-26 Live Analysis
Thursday: 26th Nov
After consolidating most of the month, it finally broke out.
I always tell my students, when playing the levels, most of the time you would get what you want, but there would be one that would break above or below the level.
After consolidating most of the month, it finally broke out.
I always tell my students, when playing the levels, most of the time you would get what you want, but there would be one that would break above or below the level.
2 Failed Trades
Last 2 days, I had two failed trades. Tue, I put in a 1/3 lot to test if a setup would happen, and it failed. Wed, I try shorting AUDUSD based on a possible H&S, and the right shoulder failed. Lost -10pips and -30pips on each. Now I am on a net loss of -22pips on my new 300pips cycle. :-(
These two trades gave me a signal that I may be seeing "outdated" stuffs on my charts. Got to clean up and re-start again. That's something that always puzzled me, why would other people's charts not updated for years! As price developed, the relevancy of the support and resistance would changed.
These two trades gave me a signal that I may be seeing "outdated" stuffs on my charts. Got to clean up and re-start again. That's something that always puzzled me, why would other people's charts not updated for years! As price developed, the relevancy of the support and resistance would changed.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-25 Live Analysis
It was a typical "short" day yesterday, price went down to halfway and backup to the same level. The road map still shows a bearish direction, but we need a setup to happen.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
2009-11-23 EURUSD Live Trade
This trade do not have any confirmation yet. Lower probability but small risk, good rewards. Will still have to manage the trade til the confirmation comes
Result: Doh!
Did not manage the trade well. Price did the intermediate stop that I predicted and I did not scale out, thus eventually got out with only 18pips profit.
Result: Doh!
Did not manage the trade well. Price did the intermediate stop that I predicted and I did not scale out, thus eventually got out with only 18pips profit.
Monday, November 23, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-23 Live Analysis (Update)
Monday: 23rd Nov, 2:59pm (SGT)
The price followed the orange set of lines analyzed over the weekend. Looks like we may have a setup at this level. What is the learning point here? Wait for price to develop into the pattern that you are familiar with. And usually, familiar patterns are your high probability setups.
4:39pm (SGT) Update
Sell setup didn't formed and looks like we have to go back to the drawing board.
The price followed the orange set of lines analyzed over the weekend. Looks like we may have a setup at this level. What is the learning point here? Wait for price to develop into the pattern that you are familiar with. And usually, familiar patterns are your high probability setups.
4:39pm (SGT) Update
Sell setup didn't formed and looks like we have to go back to the drawing board.
EURGBP 2009-11-23 Live Analysis (Update)
Monday: 23rd Nov 2:45pm (SGT)
The original point D analyzed over the weekend has shifted higher. This is one of the things we need to take note when trading harmonics, you would need to understand how to find your confirmation of the point and the setup. In any case, without these 2, you would not put in a position.
The original point D analyzed over the weekend has shifted higher. This is one of the things we need to take note when trading harmonics, you would need to understand how to find your confirmation of the point and the setup. In any case, without these 2, you would not put in a position.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-23 Live Analysis
Monday: 23rd Nov
This is going to be a tough one on Monday, but we don't have to worry, let the candles form and look for your setup. There would be many entry opportunities. I remembered the first time I learn trading Forex, there was a rule to enter near moving average lines. omg... that's quite nonsense.
When you look back on charts, you would realize at many points the moving average line is near the candles, and that usually present opportunities. However, during live, the price just seem so far away and you would miss the entry as your focus in on the moving average line.
Trade what you see is still your best friend.
This is going to be a tough one on Monday, but we don't have to worry, let the candles form and look for your setup. There would be many entry opportunities. I remembered the first time I learn trading Forex, there was a rule to enter near moving average lines. omg... that's quite nonsense.
When you look back on charts, you would realize at many points the moving average line is near the candles, and that usually present opportunities. However, during live, the price just seem so far away and you would miss the entry as your focus in on the moving average line.
Trade what you see is still your best friend.
EURGBP 2009-11-23 Live Analysis
Monday: 23rd Nov
EURGBP has done a good and deep correction. The road map is on a sell bias and potentially could be a decent reward. Monday should present some good opportunities.
EURGBP has done a good and deep correction. The road map is on a sell bias and potentially could be a decent reward. Monday should present some good opportunities.
Technical Traders
I would like to share my understanding of Technical Trading.
In my opinion, technical trading requires the trader to understand market conditions and its psychology through his/her charts. And the ability to analyze or in general we call Technical Analysis (TA) is done by learning the fundamentals of what is support and resistance, chart patterns, candle sticks formations, trend line and channels, Fibonacci and their applications. More advance stuffs like harmonic patterns and Elliot waves are useful and powerful concepts to understand Price Action (PA). Of course not forgetting indicators that are trying to describe the price movements.
Using my own yardsticks, if I were to categorize the types of technical traders, I would have the following categories
Signals - Traders that are overly focus in looking for entry signals (majority)
Levels - For those that have understood what is support and resistance, they would know how to trade the levels
Waves - For those who have more indepth understanding of the market, able to recognize wave movement and therefore possess the ability to follow development of the prices more closely
Below is a measurement of the components of skills with reference with the category of traders. Of course, these are just my opinions. Not meant to be used for any form of conclusive statements. Each box is just a short description of how each type of traders would possibly use the components of skills.
In my opinion, technical trading requires the trader to understand market conditions and its psychology through his/her charts. And the ability to analyze or in general we call Technical Analysis (TA) is done by learning the fundamentals of what is support and resistance, chart patterns, candle sticks formations, trend line and channels, Fibonacci and their applications. More advance stuffs like harmonic patterns and Elliot waves are useful and powerful concepts to understand Price Action (PA). Of course not forgetting indicators that are trying to describe the price movements.
Using my own yardsticks, if I were to categorize the types of technical traders, I would have the following categories
Signals - Traders that are overly focus in looking for entry signals (majority)
Levels - For those that have understood what is support and resistance, they would know how to trade the levels
Waves - For those who have more indepth understanding of the market, able to recognize wave movement and therefore possess the ability to follow development of the prices more closely
Below is a measurement of the components of skills with reference with the category of traders. Of course, these are just my opinions. Not meant to be used for any form of conclusive statements. Each box is just a short description of how each type of traders would possibly use the components of skills.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
320pips achieved
Cycle 1 done! This is the first cycle when I decided to put it up on my blog
To measure my trading performance, I do not use fixed period like day, week or month to determine my goals. I based it on a 300pips cycle. It allows me to measure and to modify my trading capabilities.
Screen Capture Software
To measure my trading performance, I do not use fixed period like day, week or month to determine my goals. I based it on a 300pips cycle. It allows me to measure and to modify my trading capabilities.
Screen Capture Software
2009-11-20 EURUSD Live Trade
Couldn't put this up in time as I need to prepare for a class this evening. Anyway, realized I should not have get out of my GBPUSD trade, forgot the big picture after a nap... hahaha...
As EURUSD gave me the signal first so I jumped in. It was a double top and by the ABCD pattern, this is an easy trade. So we are selling C, and maybe we could buy D on Monday
Result: 60pips and 90pips (net 75pips)
As EURUSD gave me the signal first so I jumped in. It was a double top and by the ABCD pattern, this is an easy trade. So we are selling C, and maybe we could buy D on Monday
Result: 60pips and 90pips (net 75pips)
Friday, November 20, 2009
GBPUSD 2009-11-20 Live Trade
Short GBPUSD. Still have not gotten confirmation.
Result: 0 pip
Trade closed. I didn't get the confirmation that I am right about this trade. Get out first then wait for next
Result: 0 pip
Trade closed. I didn't get the confirmation that I am right about this trade. Get out first then wait for next
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Missed all the moves...
Sigh.... After yesterday's late night. It cost me sleep and trading opportunities. Missed out my big moves. I must keep far far away from that "suay lang" （衰人）
Never mind, at least I got my hair cut from my pretty hair dresser and meet up with someone for coffee today. take a break.
Never mind, at least I got my hair cut from my pretty hair dresser and meet up with someone for coffee today. take a break.
EURUSD 2009-11-19 Live Analysis
Knowing how to trade resistance and support is the key fundamental to any technical trader. Refer to the chart below, you would notice trading can be simpler if you know how to find the levels.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
2009-11-17 EURJPY Live Trade
Price back to the support level. Still waiting for confirmation that the trade is right.
Result: Cut size to half when price doesn't look right. Remaining made a loss with 20pips. Apparently, its a wrong view, so got to take the loss. Oppss...
Thursday: Trade Review
Did my review for this trade. Ultimately, I was right about the direction, but it was a typical Gartley turned Butterfly. I don't think that there is a way to avoid this entirely, but if I had the time to follow this pair, I just need to get back in at point D and I would have made back the loss plus profit. That's why at times, it pays off to stick to a pair or two so that you can follow the price development
Result: Cut size to half when price doesn't look right. Remaining made a loss with 20pips. Apparently, its a wrong view, so got to take the loss. Oppss...
Thursday: Trade Review
Did my review for this trade. Ultimately, I was right about the direction, but it was a typical Gartley turned Butterfly. I don't think that there is a way to avoid this entirely, but if I had the time to follow this pair, I just need to get back in at point D and I would have made back the loss plus profit. That's why at times, it pays off to stick to a pair or two so that you can follow the price development
EURUSD 2009-11-17 Live Analysis
Tuesday: 17th
It was a tough day yesterday. Some support is seen at the current level and poised to find its point D (where the resistance is)
Update: 8:45pm (SGT)
Looks like the point D is already done deal. Just like one of our traders has analyzed. I missed the move on this pair, but took the hint and get onto GBPUSD.
It was a tough day yesterday. Some support is seen at the current level and poised to find its point D (where the resistance is)
Update: 8:45pm (SGT)
Looks like the point D is already done deal. Just like one of our traders has analyzed. I missed the move on this pair, but took the hint and get onto GBPUSD.
Monday, November 16, 2009
2009-11-13 EURJPY Live Trade
Forgot to post this...
Went long on EURJPY even though JPY has been pretty strong. Anyway, always trade what you see as a technical trader. Already gotten my confirmation that the trade is correct and TP1 hit with 65pips and leaving the rest for TP2.
Update: Trade Closed
Stop out, net 47.5pips profit. Market doesn't seem to have the strength, so choose to tighten stop.
Went long on EURJPY even though JPY has been pretty strong. Anyway, always trade what you see as a technical trader. Already gotten my confirmation that the trade is correct and TP1 hit with 65pips and leaving the rest for TP2.
Update: Trade Closed
Stop out, net 47.5pips profit. Market doesn't seem to have the strength, so choose to tighten stop.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
EURUSD 2009-11-15 Live Analysis
This is my analysis done on Sunday. Was back late on Friday night and after a long day, I was slow to recognize the nice big move setup. I did put in a pending order trying to get a "good" price and buying some time to think about the entry. In less than 5 mins, it was gone.
Let's hope some of traders manage to catch this. This is a very typical pattern that we look out for.
Let's hope some of traders manage to catch this. This is a very typical pattern that we look out for.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
2009-11-12 EURJPY Live Trade
This is a simple play buying at support. I always advocate this "after the down move, where would the buyers come in". Pair showed that it potentially found some support, so I am a buyer.
50pips profit. :-)
Minimum effort, not much monitoring as I was giving a lesson to a trader. No need to move stop either.
50pips profit. :-)
Minimum effort, not much monitoring as I was giving a lesson to a trader. No need to move stop either.
2009-11-12 GBPUSD Live Trade
Did a good short on GBPUSD but never manage properly as I was busy with preparation work. Can't blame anyone but myself. In any case, still got 20pips.
2009-11-11 EURJPY Live Trade
Another trade for the evening, have not hit target yet, but I did protect it.
Result: After carrying the trade overnight, got stop out with 7 pips. Ouch.. Missed TP by couple of pips while I was sleeping. Could have closed with 40pips manually. That's why the key factor to profitability is trade management.
Result: After carrying the trade overnight, got stop out with 7 pips. Ouch.. Missed TP by couple of pips while I was sleeping. Could have closed with 40pips manually. That's why the key factor to profitability is trade management.
2009-11-11 EURUSD Live Trade
Nice bearish butterfly on M15. Out with 50pips for a quick one. some more US is bank holiday.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
EURJPY 2009-11-11 Live Analysis
Though, I am basis to sell on this pair, I know buyers likely come in at D, so I am waiting to short when the resistance manage to hold off the buyers and made them cover their trades
2009-11-10 EURUSD Live Trade (Update)
Sorry to post this so late. Been caught up with preparation work for my mentoring program.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
2009-11-10 EURUSD Live Trade
Playing on the retracement. Will keep it nimble til the market tells me otherwise.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)