Saturday, October 24, 2009

Trading Psychology - Only trade with the trend

I have met many traders and read many forums, blogs on Forex.  One of the most common top tips is to trade along with the trend.

IMHO, this is an effect of a psychological fallback plan.  It is true that when you look at the chart, trending with the trend seems easier, but I do not think that would have direct benefits to the traders P&L.  Without knowing how and when to trigger, an along-with-trend trade can also turn into a loss.

Especially in Forex, most people are intraday traders and we look at smaller time frames like H1, M15 or even M5.  Using this time frame, we can actually trend either direction within a day on the same pair.

Trend (direction of main move) alone is not enough, we need to know which part of the trend from the higher time frame perspective are we trading.  Moreover, statistically, price range most of the time than trending.

Let me use the following chart as an illustration.  Assuming, you missed out the big move (up), when price is doing its retracement, you can go short and when the retracement is over, we then go long.  In this way, you don't have to wait for 3 days before you can find a trading signal.  What if you missed it?  How would your psychology be like?


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